BlockTower Capital CIO Ari Paul is prepared to “lay 10:1” against the possibility of the US creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the next four years.

The idea of the United States government holding a Bitcoin strategic reserve may be “bullish” for its price, but it is unrealistic to actually come to fruition in the near term, according to Ari Paul, chief information officer at BlockTower Capital.

“I’d lay 10:1 against the US adding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve in the next 4 years,” Paul wrote in a July 18 X post.

“With that said, plausible to me that Trump might *say* it, which would be very bullish for the BTC medium time frame,” he added, amid traders pointing out the struggle that Bitcoin has had reclaiming the $65,000 price level as support in recent times.

Paul further explained that while it may be possible that the next president says they “don’t intend to sell” any of the government’s current Bitcoin holdings, it doesn’t mean they’re actually “establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.”

“What counts as a declaration? An off-the-cuff statement by Trump? An executive order? The US gov confiscates Bitcoin in an ongoing way already,” he added.

A strategic reserve is a store of resources kept by governments for emergencies or unexpected events. For example, the US government holds the largest supply of emergency crude oil, the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” which is held to reduce the effects of potential oil supply problems.

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Social media speculation of Trump making an announcement

Paul’s comments follow social media speculation that former US president Donald Trump may announce plans to designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve if he wins this year’s election. This announcement is expected during the Bitcoin 2024 conference this month in Nashville.

“Getting more and more confirmations that these rumours maybe true. Trump to announce a USA Bitcoin strategic reserve in Nashville,” BnkToTheFuture founder Simon Dixon wrote in a July 18 X post.

“People don’t believe the USA could implement a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve but at this point it is inevitable,” Satoshi Act Fund CEO and co-founder Dennis Porter stated in a post on the same day.

“Everyone should have a Bitcoin strategic reserve. You. Your family. Your business. Your city. Your state. Your country. Everyone,” Satoshi Nakamoto Institute president Michael Goldstein aka “Bitstein” added.

It comes after entrepreneur and investor Mark Cuban recently speculated that geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures may propel Bitcoin to become a global reserve asset.