Maelstrom warns HYPE token facing pressure with $11.9B unlocks ahead
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token faces a monthly supply overhang of $410 million due to its vesting schedule, warned Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund.
Hyperliquid’s native token may be facing a “Sword of Damocles” moment in its biggest test yet, with $500 million worth of monthly unlocks set to begin Nov. 29, according to research from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes’ family office fund, Maelstrom.
The Hyperliquid token will face its “first true test” on Nov. 29, when the 24-month vesting schedule kicks off, Maelstrom said on Monday.
The vesting schedule will distribute $11.9 billion worth of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens over 24 months for team members, creating what analysts said could be significant selling pressure. Current buybacks would absorb only about 17% of that monthly supply, leaving about $410 million in potential overhang, Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert said.
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away,” Ruppert wrote.
The monthly release represents a sizable risk for Hyperliquid’s price stability. Even the growing numbers of digital asset treasuries (DATs) like Sonnet are “just a drop in the bucket compared against impending HYPE unlocks,” according to Ruppert.
Nasdaq-listed biotech company Sonnet BioTherapeutics partnered with a newly created entity, Rorschach, to launch a HYPE treasury strategy with $583 million in HYPE tokens and over $305 million in cash, As reported on July 17.
The $305 million in cash will also be used to acquire more HYPE tokens, which still pales in comparison to the token’s future unlocks
The research was published shortly after Hayes sold all his HYPE tokens, which he apparently used to pay the deposit for a new Ferrari, As reported earlier on Monday.
Hayes previously predicted the token could rally 126-fold by 2028, but acknowledged the upcoming vesting phase may trigger volatility.
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Hyperliquid sees growing competition from Aster
Competition is also intensifying for decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.
On Thursday, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao-linked decentralized perpetuals exchange Aster briefly crossed $2 billion in total value locked (TVL), following the project’s Aster (ASTER) token launch, As reported.
“You don’t eat the crypto establishment’s lunch and walk away unchallenged. Business is war,” said Maelstrom’s researcher.
“CZ pushing Aster two months before unlocks? Probably not a coincidence.”
The HYPE token rose to a new all-time high of $59.29 on Thursday, hours after Zhao posted a chart for ASTER, the native token of a rival derivatives DEX.
Despite Hayes selling all his HYPE holdings, he still sees a possibility for a 126-fold rally by 2028, he wrote in a Monday X post.
Hayes first predicted a 126x surge for the HYPE token during the Webx 2025 Conference in Tokyo, driven by continued fiat debasement that would drive a stablecoin market source, potentially pushing HyperLiquid’s annualized fees to as high as $255 billion, up from its annualized revenue of $1.2 billion at the time.
Hayes is known in the crypto space for his bold price predictions.
In April, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would surpass $250,000 before the end of 2025 if the US Federal Reserve pivoted to quantitative easing (QE). which is when the Fed buys bonds and pumps money into the economy to lower interest rates and encourage spending during difficult financial conditions.
