The infamous 10,000 BTC mistake is often used by Bitcoin maximalists to extoll the virtues of ‘hodling’ the supply-capped asset.

The two Papa John’s pizzas ordered by programmer Laszlo Hanyecz in 2010 for 10,000 Bitcoin. have become infamous in the crypto world. At current market prices, those two pizzas cost Laszlo more than $978 million.

In a 2019 interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, Hanyecz recounted the event — widely regarded as the first commercial Bitcoin transaction in history:

“I Just posted on the Forum. I said, ‘You know, if anybody’s interested, I’m offering 10,000 Bitcoin in exchange for some pizza.’ Somebody there said, ‘Hey, I’ll take you up on that offer,’ so I sent him the 10,000 Bitcoin. He paid with his credit card, and the pizza showed up at my door.”

Hanyecz’s costly mistake has become a perennial meme in the crypto community as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise each cycle — often growing by an order of magnitude or more each time.

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The rising costs of ‘Pizza Day’

The infamous Papa John’s purchase, which occurred on May 22, 2010, is widely known as ‘Pizza Day’ to the Bitcoin community.

On May 22, 2016, the 10,000 BTC spent by Hanyecz for the pizzas, which only amounted to $41 in 2010, was valued at approximately $4.4 million.

Two years later, on Pizza Day 2018, the total value of the 10,000 BTC surged to roughly $41 million — a gain of approximately 10 times since 2016.

In 2020, the price of Bitcoin reached new heights and the 10,000 BTC carried an opportunity cost of over $80 million. Pizza Day 2022 saw that opportunity cost grow by an order of magnitude to over $300 million.

The bear market of 2023 was the first time this trend reversed, with the total value of the 10,000 BTC falling to around $268 million at that time.

Industry executives and analysts are currently forecasting a $180,000 Bitcoin price target by 2025, which may bring the opportunity cost of the 10,000 BTC close to $2 billion around Pizza Day 2025.