Trump crypto order may disrupt Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle: Bitwise
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan said crypto wouldn’t “fully overcome” a four-year cycle but said market pullbacks would be “shorter and shallower” than before.
US President Donald Trump’s recent crypto executive order could disrupt the crypto market’s four-year boom and bust cycle that it has seen over the last decade, says Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan.
Trump’s sweeping Jan. 23 order, along with changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission, has brought in “the full mainstreaming of crypto” where banks and Wall Street can “move aggressively into the space,” Hougan said in a Jan. 29 note.
He added crypto exchange-traded funds were “big enough” to bring in billions from new investors but said he’s convinced Trump’s executive order to explore creating a digital asset stockpile and draft a regulatory framework “will bring trillions.”
Bitcoin has historically moved in a four-year cycle over its 16-year lifespan, seeing losses over 2014, 2018, and 2022 but hitting new peaks in the three years between each pullback. The next pullback is expected in 2026 — if the cycle continues.
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Hougan said the industry won’t “fully overcome” the four-year cycle but believed “any pullback will be shorter and shallower than in years past.”
“The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026.”
Bankruptcies from the likes of FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, BlockFi and Celsius contributed to the 2022 market fall, while the SEC’s initial coin offering crackdown and Mt. Gox’s collapse were two of the main catalysts behind the pullbacks in the earlier cycles, Hougan noted.
Hougan said the effect of Trump’s order won’t be on full display right away, as White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to craft a regulatory framework, while Wall Street’s “behemoths” will need even more time to fully realize crypto’s potential.
Wall Street banks can now custody crypto far more easily after the SEC canceled its Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 rule, which asked financial firms holding crypto to record them as liabilities on their balance sheets.
Hougan iterated Bitwise’s $200,000 price prediction for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, which it said could be obtained with or without a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
