Bitcoin price clear for new record high as GBTC outflows drop to $170M
Bitcoin faces its “biggest headwind” in the form of GBTC outflows, but the good times could be back for BTC price action after next week, predictions say.
Bitcoin could already be seeing “momentum turning” as institutional BTC outflows recede.
The latest data from sources, including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside shows the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) losing just $170 million on March 22.
BTC price consolidating before all-time high retest?
The United States Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been at the center of attention for arguably the wrong reasons this week.
Inflows have declined significantly versus the start of March, while GBTC outflows hit record highs, producing five consecutive days of net reductions in assets under management (GBTC).
The timing appears not to be random — , bankrupt crypto lender Genesis is rumored to have been selling its GBTC position throughout the week.
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Should this now have concluded, downward pressure on ETF trends could ease.
“Net flows out of the Bitcoin ETFs dropped to -$51.6mil yesterday, helped by a big slowdown in GBTC selling,” investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne noted on X about the flows data.
“Momentum turning?”
The pivot point theory is also shared by statistician Willy Woo, creator of on-chain data resource Woobull.
In a recent X post, Woo revealed a new model comparing ETF inflows with BTC price action. While he did not give specific information on which data is used for the metric, he suggested that the most intense phase of offloading might be over.
“According to this new model I’ve been playing with, the worse of the sell down in this first phase of the consolidation may be over,” he commented.
“I’m kinda expecting consolidation to run right into the halvening, thus more choppiness through April.”
Pseudonymous commentator WhalePanda agreed on the outlook.
In his own assessment of the week’s flows, he remained optimistic on near-term BTC price action, suggesting that tailwinds for a return to price discovery could be in place by next week.
“Now we’ll most likely have a sideways weekend and potentially consolidate a bit more next week before the path up to new ATH,” he wrote.
“Lots of people shaken out, lots of people waiting for lower. With current emission schedule at $64k we need $57.6 million of inflows per day to scoop up the daily mined coins. In less than a month with halving that total is $28.8 million.”
GBTC is Bitcoin’s “biggest headwind”
Others were more critical of GBTC, which now retains barely half of the AUM it had when it converted to an ETF in January.
“The whole ecosystem is going to be much healthier when GBTC has zero AUM,” crypto author and educator Vijay Boyapati argued on March 23.
“It was the product at the center of the 2022 market collapse and it’s the product whose net outflows are the biggest headwind to Bitcoin now.”
As a whole, the spot Bitcoin products represent the most successful ETF launch in history. Since they began trading, cumulative flows have reached $12.15 billion.
Earlier, Cathie Wood, CEO of one of the ETF providers, ARK Invest, said that the bulk of institutional exposure is still to come.
