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Why is Bitcoin price down today?

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Why is Bitcoin price down today?

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Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed $287.80 million in daily outflows amid a growing de-risking mood across the crypto and traditional risk markets.

Bitcoin’s price is falling today, mirroring declines across the global risk markets due to fears about the economic outlook.

Recession risks pressure Bitcoin, stocks lower

As of Sept. 4, BTC was down 3.30% to around $55,600, its lowest in a month. Similarly, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.4% following their worst performance since the Aug. 5 market meltdown.

BTC/USD versus S&P 500 futures year-to-date performance. Source: TradingView

Crypto traders are preparing for more market volatility as they wait for key economic data to see if the United States is nearing a recession and how the Federal Reserve might adjust its policies.

A jobs report on Sept. 4 will likely show a slowdown in the labor market, following recent data revealing a fifth straight month of declining manufacturing activity. With concerns shifting from inflation to economic growth, weak macro data pressures stocks and risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

For instance, the anticipation of a cooling jobs market has coincided with $287.80 million worth of daily outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), marking the longest outflow streak since June.

Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows. Source: Glassnode

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bitcoin OI and funding rates data indicate caution

Bitcoin’s decline today and recently coincides with the declining open interest (OI) in its future market.

As of Sept. 4, the Bitcoin futures market’s outstanding contracts were at around $30 billion, down from its July peak of $37.50 billion. The decline shows that traders have become less confident about Bitcoin’s near-term price movements and are, therefore, reducing their open futures positions.

BTC futures open interest. Source: Coinglass

Meanwhile, intraday data shows a strong decline in the funding rates of Bitcoin futures. Between Sep. 3 and Sep. 4, they fell from 0.0074% per eight hours to 0.0007% per eight hours, suggesting there’s now less demand for leveraged long positions.

In other words, fewer traders are betting on Bitcoin’s price increase in the short term—another de-risking signal in the hour leading up to the US jobs data.

Bitcoin’s rising wedge breakdown is underway

Chart technicals show that Bitcoin’s losses on Sept. 4 are part of a breakdown stage in a prevailing rising wedge pattern.

A rising wedge is characterized by two ascending, converging trendlines. It resolves when the price decisively breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendline, representing the breakdown stage.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Therefore, BTC’s rising wedge downside target for September is at around $54,000, down about 4.5% from the current price levels.

Conversely, a rebound from Bitcoin’s current support—the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $56,300—will likely invalidate the wedge breakdown setup, triggering the price toward the 0.382 Fib line at around $59,000 instead, or a 5% gain from current price levels.

This level coincides with BTC’s 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red line).

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