Why is Bitcoin price down today?
Bitcoin traders are reducing their risk exposure ahead of the upcoming US inflation report, among other factors contributing to the cautious sentiment.
Bitcoin’s price is down today as traders play cautiously ahead of key inflation data in the United States and elevated open interest in the derivatives market.
Bitcoin traders de-risk ahead of CPI data release
BTC’s price has declined by over 2% in the last 24 hours, reaching around $60,320 on Oct. 10. The decline mirrors downside moves in the US stock market futures, just hours ahead of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
According to the median estimates from a Bloomberg survey, the Consumer Price Index and the core measure, which excludes food and energy, likely rose by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in September. Both would mark a slowdown from the previous month’s increases in August.
A slowdown in inflation increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its November meeting. As of Oct. 10, CME data indicates an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
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Moreover, traders now see a 20% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its November meeting, a sharp increase from zero just a week ago.
Overall, rate cuts generally provide a bullish signal for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as lower rates can fuel risk-on sentiment. However, past trends suggest that traders often become more cautious ahead of key US inflation reports.
Many opt to cash out or reduce their exposure to risky assets like cryptocurrencies as part of a de-risking strategy, anticipating market volatility around these economic releases.
Bitcoin’s rising OI hints at a final shakeout
Bitcoin has declined today due to signs that its derivative market is overleveraged.
Notably, the past 24 hours have witnessed Bitcoin’s open interest levels exceeding the critical $18 billion threshold, a zone that historically signals potential market corrections.
“On the other hand, funding rates are not particularly high,” explained CryptoQuant-based analyst Aytekin, adding:
“They are slightly above their 200-day SMA, with long traders being dominant, which is unsurprising. Historically, funding rates have turned negative with major corrections, often before significant price increases.”
The Bitcoin market may soon see some long liquidations, reducing open interest and setting the stage for the market’s next move. Since funding rates aren’t too elevated, any price correction that occurs will likely be relatively shallow.
Bitcoin retreats from multi-week resistance
Bitcoin is retreating from its resistance confluence, which comprises a descending trendline and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave).
The price now holds above its current support around the $60,000-$60,500 range, a crucial level to hold to prevent further declines. Concurrently, its daily relative strength index (RSI) has bounced after almost hitting its oversold threshold of 30.
These indicators point to a possible recovery period ahead, with Bitcoin eyeing a rally toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave) at around $61,800 over the next days or weeks.