Bitcoin implied volatility nears record lows as Strategy signals BTC buy
Bitcoin’s rangebound trading style is raising eyebrows among both traders and analysts despite the Bybit hack.
Bitcoin eyed $95,000 into the Feb. 23 weekly close as signs pointed to a major BTC buy-in by business intelligence firm Strategy.
Strategy CEO Saylor hints at BTC exposure increase
Data from Markets Pro and TradingView showed a quiet weekend for BTC/USD after snap volatility over the record hack of crypto exchange Bybit.
Despite the dust still settling on the event, Bitcoin managed to pause erratic price movements as traders’ attention focused elsewhere.
“Range still ranging,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized in one of his weekend posts on X.
“Meanwhile, volatility is trending down as price is getting more and more compressed. Even during yesterday’s drama, price still closed at the same price region which it has done so for the past 2 weeks.”
Daan Crypto Trades and others noted the decline in open interest across exchanges, dipping to its lowest levels since Feb. 9 per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
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“Generally a lower open interest with a higher price is something that makes for a good reset, even if it’s just on a lower timeframe. Still need spot to take it from here,” he concluded.
Buzz around Strategy meanwhile came as a result of CEO Michael Saylor posting a chart of the firm’s existing BTC holdings — a move which has recently become a classic signal that further buying has or will be taking place.
“I don’t think this reflects what I got done last week,” Saylor commented on the latest chart print.
Bitcoin research eyes “major market moves”
On the topic of volatility, onchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin’s implied volatility has rarely been lower.
Implied volatility reflects the standard deviation of market returns from its mean.
“Bitcoin’s 1-week realized volatility has collapsed to 23.42%, nearing historical lows,” it reported on Feb. 21.
“In the past four years, it has dipped lower only a few times – e.g., Oct 2024 (22.88%) & Nov 2023 (21.35%). Similar compressions in the past led to major market moves.”
Glassnode further noted multi-year lows in play for Bitcoin options implied volatility — an event that was previously followed by “major volatility spikes.”
“Meanwhile, longer-term IV remains higher (3m: 53.1%, 6m: 56.25%),” it acknowledged.
