Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?
Bitcoin is attempting a soft recovery today, but failure to flip $95,000 back to support could lead to a classic Thanksgiving price dump.
Bitcoin’s price dropped below $95,000 on Nov. 25, breaking below an ascending broadening wedge pattern. While the crypto asset has found support from the 100-day EMA level, combined overhead resistance from the 50-day EMA and the $95,000 price range may restrict immediate recovery to the range highs around $99,000.
With multiple altcoins recovering faster than BTC, analysts are at odds with whether Bitcoin is heading for more corrections or a higher high at $100,000.
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Bitcoin’s second target is “still 20.7% away”
While Bitcoin has declined by more than 5% over the past two days, Javon Marks, an independent analyst, mentioned that the current “pullback” is possibly short-term.
In an X post, Marks highlighted that Bitcoin’s history and trend points suggest that the crypto asset should reach “Target 2” at $113,386, or 20.7% from the current price range.
From an onchain perspective, Axel Adler Jr, a Bitcoin researcher, also said that the BTC market remains “bullish.”
Adler Jr. identified that the number of BTC value days destroyed remained well below 2, which means most long-term holders continue to hold their allocations. A VDD value of over 2.9 indicates heightened spending activity, which often coincides with the end of euphoric Bitcoin bull runs.
On the other hand, Ran Neuner, Crypto Banter founder, took an opposing viewpoint, targeting the CME gap at $77,800. The analyst said that BTC could drop as low as $73,000 if prices break below the aforementioned range within the next 21 days.
From a technical standpoint, Cryptotoad, an anonymous analyst, also opened the possibility of “lower numbers” based on the current impulse wave structure.
Meanwhile, Horse, a commodities and indexes trader, outlined a retest zone between $88,500 and $82,000. Based on auction market theory and volume profile, Bitcoin is expected to bounce from this range over the next month.
Bitcoin may repeat the Thanksgiving dump
Historically, market trends favor a bullish bounce in December, but prices may dump during Thanksgiving day. In November 2020, BTC corrections happened at the end of the month, where BTC peaked at $19,633 but could not break above its ATH level of $20,000.
However, two weeks later, the price ascended beyond its psychological level, reaching a new all-time high in Q1 2021. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, suggested that Wednesdays (i.e., Nov. 27 right now) are usually bullish for BTC. However, on Thanksgiving, the asset has undergone a correction on average between 2019 and 2023.
A bullish confirmation for Bitcoin will be attained if BTC closes above $95,000 on the daily candle. While prices are moving upward, price volatility may drag BTC near its liquidity zones around $90,000 if BTC fails to recover its position above its 50-day EMA over the next 24 hours.
